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January 5, 2010

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To better grasp the year ahead, we spent yesterday asking the tech universe for predictions on ‘10 and beyond. Two hot trends almost all mentioned: early uptick on M&A and cloud computing ubiquity.
SAIC guru Mike Daniels

SAIC guru Mike Daniels says cybersecurity, energy, and healthcare will be key focus areas, thanks to less funding constraints than others. Foreign and private equity buyers will continue to scour the Washington region for technology plays tied to significant federal government revenue streams.

WMG (Growing)
Federal marketing wiz Mark Amtower

Federal marketing wiz Mark Amtower says social media will become pervasive throughout the government market as social networks like LinkedIn, TFCN and GovLoop, Twitter, webinars, podcasts, and video casts further replace some traditional marketing methods. “Those who don’t migrate to them will see market share erode.”

CGI - in-text or right ti
Winvale group managing partner Kevin Lancaster

Winvale group managing partner Kevin Lancaster is pushing the cloud. He says the DC area hosted 388 events on cloud computing over the last six months alone (!), and the first half of ’10 will be filled with pilot programs and proof of concepts, hopefully leading to second half adoption and procurement actions.

DoD consulting guru Rob Guerra

DoD consulting guru Rob Guerra says some in government will continue to find reasons not to apply true Performance Based Acquisition, objectives based, methodologies to procurements and then wonder why industry can't meet the government's objectives. He also predicts that many in industry will continue to manage programs by just putting more "butts in seats" and ignoring mission goals while driving margin, and then wonder why government officials are angry with them.

Information Experts CEO Marissa Levin

Information Experts CEO Marissa Levin predicts an overall increase in federal training initiatives, centered around the massive retirement wave of GS-9 and above employees over the age of 50, and the need to ramp up new hires. She also predicts women-business owners will continue to outpace their male counterparts in terms of start-ups and business growth.

LondonInk’s Bob London

Three predictions from LondonInk’s Bob London:

  • While social media/marketing will remain buzzworthy, B2B/technology marketers will begin realizing that it’s not as effective as more proactive forms of marketing such as "nurture" marketing. (Looks like Bob and Mark Amtower, four pics up, might want to get their stories straight.)

  • M&A among FedGovCons (federal government contractors) will accelerate during the first quarter of 2010, and the early-stage tech venture capital market will become much more active starting in the second quarter.

  • A major corporate scandal will break via Twitter.
Dataline VP Kevin Jackson

Dataline VP Kevin Jackson says in order to satiate the federal government’s hunger for the cloud, vendors, both large and small, will put “cloud computing” as a descriptor onto all of their offerings. Although this will cause market confusion and a reflexive backlash, many government pilots will still prove their worth, leading to large government cloud computing programs in ‘11.

Criterion Systems CEO Promod Sharma

Criterion Systems CEO Promod Sharma says the most significant growth for IT will start in the 3rd quarter. Companies are beginning to show decent profits and will now start investing in IT infrastructure and automation. Cybersecurity threats will also spur industry growth as we will see increasing demand for companies to implement sound security programs.

Holland & Knight’s Adam August, right,

Holland & Knight’s Adam August, right, predicts that ‘10 M&A activity will more than double 2009 (following a strong uptick in the last part of ‘09). Cybersecurity and counterterrorism will pervade the industry, so the best technologies in that field will bring a premium.

Cisco distinguished fellow Alan Balutis

And as a finale, a few heady predictions from Cisco distinguished fellow Alan Balutis:

  • In 2011, the inspectors general who make up the Recovery Act Transparency and Accountability Board (the so-called "RAT Board") will issue a report before returning to their home agencies that will begin "Managing and really doing things is a lot harder than we realized. . . . "

  • Within two years, information on the Internet will double every 11 hours.

  • By the end of 2010, 35 billion devices will be connected to the Internet —nearly six devices per person on the planet.

  • By 2013, wireless network traffic will reach 400 petabytes a month. Today, the entire global network transfers 9 exabytes per month. We haven't a clue many zeroes that is, but we assume a lot. We'd Google it, but we don't know how many zeroes are in a Google, either.

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