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January 7, 2010 
 
 
Monday (386 Park) - left
RECORD BREAKING TISHMAN

 
Tishman Speyer’s on a leasing roll—in addition to Gibson Dunn & Crutcher’s 260k-SF renewal/expansion at its 200 Park, it just announced deals totaling 1M SF in December alone, a single-month record for the firm’s regional operations. The leases include:
 
  • Simon & Schuster’s five-year, 292k-SF extension at 1230 Ave of the Americas (tenant rep: CB’s Scott Gottlieb, Michael Laginestra, Andrew Sussman, and Michael Wellen; landlord rep: Tishman’s Calvin Farley and Ted Koltis)

  • Prudential Insurance Co.’s 10-year, 225k-SF renewal at 200 Wood Ave South in Iselin, NJ (TR: Grubb's David Arena, Michael Gottlieb, Jeff Kolodkin, and Marty Cottingham; LR: Tishman’s Blythe Kinsler and Todd Silverman)

  • CBRE's 15-year, 125k-SF renewal/relocation at 200 Park (TR: CBRE’s Ken Meyerson, Linda Lindman, and Christopher Corrinet; LR: Tishman’s Koltis and Megan Sheehan)

  • Michael Kors’ 15-year, renewal/expansion to 90k SF at 11 W. 42nd, pictured (TR: Cush/Wake's Glenn Markman and Danielle Zimbaro; LR: Tishman’s Farley and Greg Conen)

WHERE'S THE RECOVERY?
 
Cushman & Sonnenblick Goldman’s Arthur Sonnenblick with Cornerstone Accounting Group’s Harry Dublinsky

[Note: Good News is off this week; today's guest editor: Bad News] Delinquencies and defaults are up 500%, says Cushman & Sonnenblick Goldman’s Arthur Sonnenblick, panelist at The Foundation for Accounting Education’s annual RE conference. Arthur (left, with Cornerstone Accounting Group’s Harry Dublinsky), says there’s money to buy, but sellers can’t sell. Regional banks are in desperate shape, and he estimates another 100 banks will go under over the next two years. Debt is the problem, he continues; it’s what brought us here, and government debt is what saved it. Expect another 3-5 years before a recovery we’ll be happy with.

Sterling American Property’s Daniel Rosenberg (left) and Grassi & Co.’s Craig Maurer (right), join Harry, Arthur, and other panelists: Integra Realty Resources’ Raymond Cirz, Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Jacky Teplitzky, and Murray Hill Properties’ Roxana Girand. Roxana’s more positive ’10 outlook calls for an office bottom, moderately improved retail market, conservative rebirth of CMBS, and an increase in foreign buyers. Residential’s already seeing stabilization, Jacky adds, but the wild card will be inventory levels and mortgage availability. Raymond says, despite our office woes, NYC has the lowest vacancies in the country.


YEAR OF MODEST GAINS

 
Sam Chandan addresses the National Realty Club

What would the new year be without commentary from Real Estate Econometrics’ Sam Chandan? We dropped by National Realty Club’s luncheon yesterday at the Friars Club for a look into his crystal ball. He spots an improvement in consumers’ expectations on jobs and the economy. Even with some seeing light at the end of the tunnel, they’re more conservative on personal outcome. Expect only modest gains in ’10.

Tom Graf, Sam Chandan, and Adam Marsh

Will we see a return to ’06-’07 sales? Sam (with Mill Pond Capital’s ubiqitous Tom Graf and Adam Marsh) tells us we’re still in the process of price discovery and we’ll witness a wealth transfer over the next few years as capable operators take over distressed properties. Challenges we’re facing include policymakers who’re still learning how the CRE market functions, 5k banks with meaningful exposure to real estate, and the market’s headline risk, which has the potential to undo the progress we’ve made with people recognizing CRE as an asset class.


UPCOMING EVENTS
 

January 12 - REBNY Commercial Seminar 8am-10am - 570 Lexington Avenue - REBNY Mendik Education Center - Registration Required; members only

 

New year, new stories! Send your ideas to amanda@bisnow.com

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