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June 18, 2009
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This Afternoon's Unemployment Numbers
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A big shoutout to new Bisnow sponsor the Consumer Electronics Association, which launched its Innovation Movement this week, a community of industry professionals, entrepreneurs, and all Americans who believe innovation is vital to economic recovery and growth. Click here to join the movement, and tell them we sent you. |
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Good news: That empty cubicle to your right might be filled soon. Bad news: You'll have have to wear headphones when you watch Hulu. But think big picture here. The Labor Department (Sec. Hilda Solis at right) reported hours ago that last week brought the first drop in the unemployment roll since January, and the largest dive in seven years. Experts say the slowing won't necessarily prevent the emotionally jarring 10%. (We're at 9.4% now.)
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| We snapped this in McLean this morning at a confab on the “transformation of Fairfax County”: County Board of Supervisors chair Sharon Bulova, flanked by Economic Development Authority chair Steve Davis and long-time president Jerry Gordon. Sharon says Fairfax needs to start thinking about itself as an urban not suburban area. Jerry projected huge office increases: Springfield’s 4.2 million square feet will triple in the next 10 years, as even Springfield Mall will become high rise office, residential, shops, and hotels; Merrifield is developing a 31 acre town center; Bailey’s Crossroads is developing new high density office space; the National Geospatial Agency is adding 2.5M SF at Ft. Belvoir; low rises in Reston will be replaced by much bigger structures as the Silver Line arrives; and Westfields, with 1200 acres of office potential, will become the largest office park in Metro Washington. |
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| Bill Hudnut, left, had been mayor of Indianapolis for 16 years when he moved to Chevy Chase in the mid-90s, becoming mayor there and a scholar at DC’s Urban Land Institute. He says the challenge for Tysons is to get its share of the new 2 million residents and 1.6 million jobs expected in this region over the next 25 years; he says the county must reinvent itself as transit oriented and walkable. He told the audience to imagine a Tysons “buit for people, not cars,” arguing “density is your friend.” With Bill: Rich Klimoski, dean of the George Mason School of Management for the last eight years—but wait, this is his last week in the role, which might account for the big smile! He’ll resume as a professor there. |
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| Man, we were busy this morning—we also had breakfast with top brass from Ernst & Young. (Even though it was at the Ritz, please note our inexpensive menu of OJ, coffee, and berries. Also, give us extra credit for doing this at 7 AM.) Kevin Virostek, center, is E&Y’s area managing partner; Howard Roth, right, is Global Real Estate Leader, down from New York; and Dan Lasik is mid-Atlantic hospitality head (meaning he’s in charge of accounts like Marriott). The guys think the slowdown “has a long tail,” apparently accounting talk for continued sluggishness. Howard points out the S&L crisis of the early 90’s had isolated problems, but now we have multiple ones. Dan says that while he thinks a lot of clients have “written off 2009,” he’s an optimist, sees no more freefall, and hopes for moderate growth in late '10. But at the moment, Kevin says, he hears companies talking more about cost reduction than “top line” (ie, revenue) growth. |
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| Also this morning, our own publisher (not shown—he only likes to take pictures of others!) moderated this panel on how non-profits can even prosper during recession hosted by Microsoft and the American Society of Association Executives. Holding forth: American Association of Blood Banks CFO Mark Conheady, Search for Common Ground CFO Jack Deeds, Association of Public Health Laboratories COO Carol Clark, and American Israel Public Affairs Committee CFO Chrystal Kern. Their secrets: squeeze fat, install better technology, apply private sector discipline, and learn to say no. |
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| And here’s another panel of association execs, one which we convened at the City Club on Tuesday. Jerry Jasinowski, second from left, who was CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers for 15 years, and now serves on multiple boards like Avectra association software, told our guests that the financial environment is stabilizing, but credits that less to federal stimulus than to $4 trillion of “high power” money being injected into the system by the Fed. Unfortunately, he sees no clear signs a recovery emerging this year and projects just “mediocre” growth in late 2010. But the breakfast was tasty. |
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| The Carlyle Group (that’s founder David Rubenstein in the center) is considering purchasing San Francisco-based First Republic Bank from Bank of America, just a month after joining in a purchase of Florida’s BankUnited. Carlyle is partnering with Blackstone Group and TPG on the potential sale. Analysts estimate First Republic Bank could sell for $700M as BoA looks to raise capital following its $45 billion bailout. |
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| The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board unanimously agreed to add a Purple Line (16-mile track that would connect Bethesda and New Carrollton) to the area’s transportation plan, despite concerns from environmentalists that the tracks could harm the Capital Crescent Trail. |
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| With three federal labs nearby (NIH, NIST and NASA), the challenge for Rockville Economic Development Inc is figuring out how to keep all those developed brains in the area once they finish studying. “These are some of the brightest people in the world and about only half will go into teaching careers, leaving the other half wondering what to do,” says Sally Sternbach, ED of REDI. Thus, an annual post-doc conference (July 22) will allow local companies like Northrup Grumman, Booz Allen Hamilton, and Novavax to hire them before they bolt. The post-docs are also shown alternative careers like writing or starting a company. “The longer we keep them here, the better it is for our local economy,” Sally says. |
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